The covariance ladder
build 2026-07-09 · graph v0.3.0 · PSD ✓ · all knobs placeholders until the benchnull · constant correlation
12.92 / 19 bets
ρ̄=0.30 — the reference every rung must beat out-of-sample
block target F
12.67 / 19 bets
modality blocks + weight-scaled rivalry haircuts
factor model
17.26 / 19 bets
47 asserted factors — 4 modality / 23 shared / 20 rivalry
narrative-dressed Σt live
17.20 / 19 bets
9 measured live-narrative factors (v=0.1) — pending bench
block-correlation target F
ordered by modality block — blocks are the bright squares; rivalry pairs dipfactor-model correlation
Σ = BΣfBᵀ + D — shared customers/programs/factors add off-block structuremodality blocks
15 blocks · 20 rivalry pairstrapped-ion IONQQNT
superconducting RGTIIQMX
photonic QUBTXNDU
pqc-software ARQQONE
annealing QBTS
neutral-atom INFQ
software-tools HQ
software-algorithms ZPTA
pqc-hybrid BTQ
pqc-silicon LAES
pqc-hardware 456010.KQ
qrng-entropy QNC
quantum-materials-auth QUBE
qkd 688027.SS
cryogenics-enabler QNCR.CN
params: ρ_within=0.6 · ρ_cross=0.3 ·
rivalry_δ=0.15 — placeholders, never fit to the 19 names
live narrative factors (rung 4)
measured loadings — √(mentions / theme max), dressing the asserted factor modelnarrative:sovereign_compute 4 carriers
IQMX 1.00QBTS 1.00IONQ 0.58RGTI 0.58
narrative:contract_wins 5 carriers
IQMX 1.00QBTS 0.87INFQ 0.50QNT 0.50LAES 0.50
narrative:analyst_sentiment 5 carriers
IONQ 1.00QNT 0.82INFQ 0.58IQMX 0.58ARQQ 0.58
narrative:roadmap_milestone 4 carriers
IONQ 1.00QBTS 1.00INFQ 0.71IQMX 0.71
narrative:ai_convergence 3 carriers
IQMX 1.00IONQ 0.82ZPTA 0.58
narrative:insider_flow 3 carriers
IQMX 1.00ARQQ 0.50LAES 0.50
narrative:earnings_revenue 3 carriers
LAES 1.00ARQQ 1.00QBTS 1.00
narrative:ipo_listing 3 carriers
IQMX 1.00RGTI 0.58QNT 0.58
narrative:hype_skepticism 3 carriers
IONQ 1.00QBTS 0.58HQ 0.58
v_narrative is a placeholder; asserted narrative-node loadings remain in the base model (possible double-count) — both are bench questions. Beat the null or ship the null.